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Signal Horizon

Weekly Newsletter 

May 28, 2024

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Have we become energy blind?

Ralph Schoellhammer

Ralph Schoellhammer

We live in truly troubling times. If it were not for suicidal economic decisions (in Germany, and Europe more broadly), and geopolitical instability due to an incompetent hegemon (the US), and revisionist powers (China, Russia, and Iran), as well as states with huge potential that are unfortunately politically failing (Venezuela), the world could be entering a period of unprecedented prosperity.

This is because the world would have access to an ever larger amount of energy, and energy is the key to prosperity — always and everywhere. We just have forgotten about this, so let's take a closer look.

The history of economic development is not only a story of institutional innovations and reforms that enabled free markets. It is also a story of constant progress in finding and creating ever more efficient energy sources, culminating in the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century.  The Industrial Revolution was in many ways an energy revolution, characterised by the shift away from wood, animal, and human labour to the first industries powered by machines and hydrocarbons (coal, oil, and gas). 

At every step along energy’s evolution, human beings became more prosperous — having more energy freed up the time and capacity to do additional things. Once the task of grinding cereals into flour is no longer done manually but by wind or watermills, it frees up both time and energy for other activities. And we still end up with more flour than before. The emerging calorie surplus allows you to have people engaging in activities like science and medicine, because they can be fed, despite not contributing directly to food production itself. This allows societies to become ever more productive and live longer lives.

The current yearly energy use of the world is close to the equivalent of 100 billion barrels of oil, about the same amount of energy created by 500 billion human workers.  The energy content of a barrel of oil is 5,700,000 British Thermal Units (BTUs, the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit) or 1700 kWh of work potential. For comparison, it would take the average person 4.5 years to generate the same amount of work as one barrel of oil.

The transformation from manual labour to machines did not just multiply industrial output: it also made economic models based on slavery and forced labour uncompetitive. It is no coincidence after the Industrial Revolution that Great Britain also became the leading force in abolishing slavery. Or that during the American Civil War, it was the industrialised North that fought against, and defeated, the slave-holding South. Certainly, the energy-driven industrialisation had its downsides as well, especially in exploiting the new urban working class. It remains important, however, to put this into perspective as well. It took humanity millennia to abolish slavery, but a few centuries to transform an impoverished working class into a prosperous middle class.

It also allowed more and more people to move from the agricultural sector to other sectors of the economy, as industrialised farming produced more crops with less labour. This freed up human capital for other endeavours, allowing human beings to make a living based on skills other than physical labour. Between 1800 and 2020, the required labour to produce one kilogramme of grain dropped by more than 98 per cent. Corn yields in the United States rose from 2 tons per hectare in 1920 to 11 tons per hectare in 2020.  This trend happened worldwide: as agriculture became more energy intensive, outputs increased significantly. Since 1961 cereal production and cereal yields have grown by over 200 per cent worldwide.  In the 100 years between 1900 and 2000, the global population grew approximately 400 per cent, compared to an expansion of available farmland of only about 40 per cent.

The energy used in agriculture has grown by a factor of 90, due to the widespread use of energy embedded in agrochemicals and fuels directly consumed by machinery. From food to material comforts, an abundant and steady supply of energy makes all of it possible. It is the master resource that ultimately decides the level of prosperity a society can maintain.

However, western societies have become totally hostile to the concept of energy (particularly from fossil fuels). Both the public and policymakers seem to believe our current standards of living can be maintained even as energy becomes a scarcer and more expensive resource.

Once we start remembering energy's importance, maybe we can get the world back on track to harness the still untapped potential for growth and future prosperity.

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China continues to dominate the critical minerals market

The attempts of the West to reduce its dependence on China for critical minerals are failing, the Wall Street Journal reports. Over the past few years, western countries have tried to loosen China's hold on essential minerals needed for defence and green technologies. However, despite these efforts, Chinese companies are growing more dominant, not losing their influence.

Last year, non-Chinese refined cobalt production hit a 15-year low, as reported by Darton Commodities. Meanwhile, the share of lithium mining by Chinese companies or within China has surged from 14 per cent in 2018 to 35 per cent this year, according to Fastmarkets. Additionally, lithium processing within China increased from 63 per cent in 2018 to 70 per cent, also reported by Fastmarkets.

Global shipping is under pressure

Although the situation is not as troublesome as it was during the height of Covid, global shipping is facing a plethora of problems, the Financial Times reports

Pirate attacks, Middle Eastern unrest, and drought are disrupting global ports and causing congestion. Diverting Asia-Europe vessels around the Cape of Good Hope adds 9-14 days to voyages and creates hold-ups in Algeciras and Tangier. Pirate activity off Somalia is rising, and fears that Iran might target more ships in the Strait of Hormuz have increased since Iran seized the container ship MSC Aries in April.

In the Americas, Panama Canal traffic is reduced due to drought-imposed transit and draught limits. In Europe, ports handling vehicle imports are congested with Chinese cars. Norden CEO Jan Rindbo calls these simultaneous issues unprecedented "black swan events".

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Can the West keep up support for Ukraine?

Although both financial and military aid from the West is still reaching Ukraine, worries are increasing that both the amount and the speed of provision are declining. 

For example, Hungary's foreign minister received sharp criticism from his EU colleagues on May 27 over Budapest stalling €6.5 billion (around $7.1 billion) in military aid for Ukraine, Le Monde reported. Hungary is blocking three separate €500 million ($540 million) tranches under the European Peace Facility (EFF) fund, as well as €5 billion ($5.4 billion) allocated for the EFF's Ukraine Assistance Fund. Budapest approved the cash infusion for the Ukraine Assistance Fund in March, but now refuses to sign off on documents to disburse the aid.

But it is not only Hungary that is stalling: NATO allies are pressing outgoing chief Jens Stoltenberg for more details on his plan to commit €100 billion in support for Ukraine. The proposal, aimed at safeguarding financial aid from potential future US policy shifts, has sparked debate within the alliance. Even some of Ukraine's strong Eastern European supporters have grown cautious, questioning the funding source as the NATO summit in Washington approaches in July.

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